According to a report released by Global Port Tracker, container traffic for the top 10 U.S. ports is forecasted to be up 9% from April a year ago.
The article also predicts the following increases over the subsequent months in 2010:
• April? 1.24 million TEUs (+9%)
• May? 1.32 million TEUs (+ 4%)
• June? 1.38 million TEUs (+5%)
• July? 1.45 million TEUs (+5%)
• August? 1.54 million TEUs (+8%)
• First half 2011 is forecast at 7.4 million TEUs (+8%)
“These numbers are an indication that the economy is recovering and retailers are expecting continued...
We read this very interesting article on commercial real estate and inflation from the CRE Console.
The article forecasts that cap rates will rise with treasuries as the economy continues to improve. This rise in caps and treasuries is expected to drive CRE values down an estimated 17% if the spread between the two remains constant. Even if the spread between cap rates and treasuries compresses a nominal amount, values will potentially still see double digit declines.
We agree with the article. We see cap rates rising with treasuries over the next 12-24 months. This rise will drive values...
A great Industrial Article written by The Oakstone.
The heat is on in the industrial market. With improving positive absorption, very little new construction in the pipeline and the merger of two giants creating excitement, 2011 may very well be the year for this oft-overlooked corner of the real estate world.
In fact, sunnier days have already begun to make themselves evident. “There’s just a lot of positive signs in the market,” said Craig Meyer, Jones Lang LaSalle Inc. managing director & head of industrial real estate for the Americas. “It’s becoming much healthier than it was over...
We have read some amazing industrial reports this week from CBRE, Grubb & Ellis (Grubb), Cushman & Wakefield (CW), and REAL Capital Analytics (REAL).
Here are some great take-aways:
* Sales of significant industrial properties totaled $890M in February, a 33% increase from a year earlier(REAL).
* Total industrial activity increased to $18.9 billion in 2010 up 77% from 2009(REAL).
* Demand has been stronger than supply in Atlanta, Dallas and the Inland Empire(REAL).
* Rental rates remain flat, but due to the limited amount of construction activity, this may change in 2011 as the economy...
Great insight to the global economic environment from Pimco.
Q: What is PIMCO’s outlook on inflation and interest rates if the situation in the Middle East does not lead to a severe oil shock?
Parikh: Setting aside immediate oil shocks, we believe global inflation has cyclically troughed and we see a secular upswing in inflation, which naturally will put upward pressure on interest rates.
We see three key global factors as potentially adding to inflation over a long horizon:
* The degradation of sovereign balance sheets and the structural inflexibility of fiscal deficits.
Article from GlobeSt.com
NEW YORK CITY-The pace of US CMBS loans transferring to special servicing has slackened since 2009, and the year-to-date tally is about one-third of what it was 12 months ago, Fitch Ratings said Friday. That being said, a slowdown does not mean a full stop: earlier in the week, Moody’s Investors Service noted that the delinquency rate for CMBS continued to tick upward last month, albeit at the more moderate pace seen since June 2010.
About 200 Fitch-rated CMBS loans have gone into special servicing since the start of 2011. That compares to 631 for the same...
January CoStar Commercial Repeat Sales Index Illustrates How Rapidly Prices were Falling a Year Ago – And How Much They’ve Improved
CoStar’s index tracking repeat sales of investment-grade commercial properties jumped 10.6% in January over the same period last year, the largest year-over-year gain since the height of the real estate boom in 2006.
The increase in the index for higher-quality properties hit a five-year high for January despite dipping slightly from December, a reflection of how hard the index fell a year ago and how strongly it has recovered within 12 months.
Story from Globe St.
BALTIMORE-Multifamily has been the rock star commercial real estate asset class for some time. Signs, though, are pointing to a contender for that title: industrial–especially properties on the Eastern Seaboard.
Case in point, the recent trade of 1900 Clark Rd., a 613,000-square-foot distribution center in the Havre de Grace submarket. It sold for $26.4 million–a 35% increase from the last time it traded in September 2009. “Nothing else changed about this product,” Cassidy Turley’s Jonathan Carpenter tells me. “The cap rate was just north of 7% with...
According to the data:
* The current annualized rate of growth (4Q2010) is 1.24 percent, which is in line with the historical average of 1 to 2 percent.
* Prior to 3Q2010, industrial space demand had been in “contraction mode” marked by seven consecutive quarters of negative demand for industrial space. In 4Q09, demand declined at an average annualized rate of 1.2 percent, which was below the rate of decline in the prior quarters of 2009.
* The two main variables used in the calculation – Purchasing Manager Index and Index of Manufacturing Output (see below for details) – are strong...
A great article on Industrial Real Estate. We agree with CBRE. Industrial Real Estate will rebound very fast. The Prologis/AMB merger will create some great opportunity as they reposition their global portfolio. CAP rates will compress as long as interest rates stay low.
To explore the topic of investing in industrial real estate we need to take a look at the sector’s recent performance and the trends that are evolving and emerging in 2011. U.S. industrial investment transaction volume in 2010 was $18.9 billion which represents a 77% improvement over 2009 but it is still 65% below...