I was able to tour the Port of Long Beach industrial area yesterday with Blake Tippet from Grubb and Ellis. Blake, thank you for the time and of course lunch at an epic Mexican place (Lucio’s). After recent reports of port traffic being up over 20% from last year in exports and imports, I felt it was a great time to visit the port area and see first hand how the market was responding. In summary, the market is definitely soft with a large amount of vacant buildings and quite a few buildings coming to market in the near future. The few major players in the area have remained active...
Link: “It’s the Economy, Stupid”
This is a great article on the current economy from UCLA. Please go to the link to download the article.
“The business of real estate is closely tied to the health of the macro-economy. An important determinant of whether the recent economic shock will have a double dip is how consumption responds to the current and prospective declines in asset values. Absent a renewal of economicgrowth, as evidenced both in GDP and employment, the business of real estate will not prosper.”
IntroductionIn November 28, 2008 the Business Cycle Dating Committee...
Link: Los Angeles Ranks Among The Worst Cities for Jobs
“No state has suffered a greater reversal of fortunes than California. Five or six years ago California regions generally inhabited the top half or third of our lists. Today they generally have fallen even faster than the other Sunbelt states, even though the state’s economy boasts many assets beyond merely real estate speculation.
California now accounts for a remarkable 7 of the bottom 20 regions on our big metro list. The diversity of the disaster spans both the urban centers and the exurbs—witness exurban Riverside-San...
Link: Commercial real estate market starts to perk up
This is a great article on the truth in Commercial Real Estate. Borrowers that are need of a refinance are going to have a tough time refinancing their current notes coming due unless they have capital to buy down the principal. By Paul Davidson, USA TODAY The darkest cloud over the economic recovery — the troubled commercial real estate market — may be clearing a bit.
Prices of commercial property are up slightly compared with last fall. Loan modifications have risen sharply the past six months. Commercial mortgage-backed securities...
We would like to thank everyone that has replied and commented on our recent newsletters. The purpose of these newsletters is to bring an opinion to the market and not just reiterate the sea of sameness coming from leading news sources. In response to many of our readers; this week we plan to shed some positive light on the market. Many of us may feel like this gentleman pictured below however now is not the time to grab a cardboard sign. We are seeing positive market data being released and plan on seeing some great buying opportunities coming later this year. There is $1.4 Trillion of debt...
Great Article by Rueters. The $1.4 Trillion coming due is only going to hurt the market further. We do not expect to see CMBS loans level out for some time. The Market is still trending downward and will continue to do so until the demand can absorb some of the inventory. On a positive note, Port traffic is up along with transactions and some news of job growth. A little good news is always welcome in this sea of bad news.
Tue Jan 5, 2010 4:25pm EST
http://www.reuters.com/article/idUSN056649220100105
NEW YORK, Jan 5 (Reuters) - The delinquency rate for loans underlying commercial mortgage-backed...
Link: Industrial Property Market Recovery Seen for 2011
Here is a great article by the AP posted on the NY Times website about the Commercial Real Estate Market gaining some forward momentum in absorption and inventories that equal new jobs. What do you think about the article, please share your thoughts with us. Click the link above to read the entire story.
By THE ASSOCIATED PRESS
Published: April 9, 2010
LOS ANGELES (AP) — After one of the worst years in decades, the industrial property market is slowly regaining its footing.
Companies are beginning to stock up on goods again after...
Link: Unemployment: More Than 3 Million Americans Jobless For Longer Than A Year, An All-Time High
Unemployment: More Than 3 Million Americans Jobless For Longer Than A Year, An All-Time High (CHARTS)
More than three million Americans have been out of work for at least a year, according to a new analysis of unemployment data.
That represents 23 percent of the roughly 14.8 million Americans out of work and looking for a job — a post-World War II high. For those 3.4 million Americans, the consequences from such a long time out of work — a cost of the Great Recession — can be calamitous.
“[T]he...
Economy dipped in half of U.S. in last 3 months
Article from Huffington Post 4/1/10 (credit Grace Kiser) Despite widespread hints that the recession has ended and a generally rosy outlook for tomorrow’s job numbers, economic activity fell in half of U.S. states over the past three months, according to this great map that Calculated Risk pulled from the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia.
In its monthly report, the Philadelphia Fed reported that while the coincident index rose nationally and in 18 states over the quarter, it also dropped off in 25 states. (A coincident index...