Article from Huffington Post 4/1/10 (credit Grace Kiser) Despite widespread hints that the recession has ended and a generally rosy outlook for tomorrow’s job numbers, economic activity fell in half of U.S. states over the past three months, according to this great map that Calculated Risk pulled from the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia.
In its monthly report, the Philadelphia Fed reported that while the coincident index rose nationally and in 18 states over the quarter, it also dropped off in 25 states. (A coincident index is a single value, derived from a series of economic indicators, that the Fed uses to monitor the health of the economy. If the index rises, it suggests an increase in economic activity, while a decrease indicates a contraction.)
As Vincent Fernando at The Business Insider points out, these uneven outcomes may help explain why so many Americans are dubious that the country is emerging from the downturn.
Check out the CHART below:
Along with the economy continuing to show no sign of a recovery, the CMBS delinquency rate accelerated in March. We feel that the economy has another turn down before it is going to begin to recover. Although it is impossible to know when the absolute bottom is reached, we know that if you are LONG on your investments, late this year will be a great opportunity to acquire and analyze the first lump of the $1.4 Trillion CMBS loans coming on the market.