Green Pearl Events – Los Angeles, CA – Feb 4th, 2010
The Green Pearl Event in Los Angeles was a very informative afternoon from the commercial real estate industries top professionals. I would definitely recommend attending the next event. (www.greenpearlevents.com)
In the next few years going forward there is an expected $1.3 Trillion in debt coming due and $40-$50B in commercial notes coming to market through 2012. There is an estimated $3-$5B in life insurance capital on the sidelines ready to deploy in second half of 2010. As so much product is on the horizon, buyers are out there ready to take advantage of great opportunities however are still being very cautious to the next potential downturn on the horizon. We have not hit the bottom of the market however many foresee that we are only 1/3 way through this downturn or are in the 3rd Inning of a baseball game.
The issues that are present are determining value as vacancy is continuing to decline, CAP rates are rising and unemployment is not coming back anytime soon.
· $40-$50B in Commercial notes coming to market through 2012
· Estimated $3-$5B in Life Insurance capital on the sidelines ready to deploy in second half of 2010
· Major Players in the CMBS market are seeking deals
· $1.3T coming due through 2013
· Job growth isn’t on the horizon
· Cash on the sidelines “Need to use it or loose it”
· Prudential has $4B to deploy in 2010
· Special servicers are the gate keeps. Work your relationships
· Vacancy will continue to increase as small businesses are moving back in their garages, consumer spending is decreasing and credit is unobtainable.
· Absorption is going to take quite a ling time with new product coming on the market faster than the market can handle